The World in 2017 -
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The World in 2017 -

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Will the Iran nuclear deal collapse?

No. Donald Trump has threatened to pull the US out of the deal, but that is more easily said than done. Even if the US withdraws, the nuclear accord, signed by Iran and six world powers and enshrined in a UN Security Council resolution, will stand. A Trump administration, however, can still undermine the deal by raising fresh pressure on Tehran to the point where Iran withholds its compliance. So it is possible that the deal begins to unravel in 2017, but expect the other signatories — namely Russia, China, France, the UK and Germany — to work hard to contain the damage.

Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin do a Syria deal?

Yes. But it will not be worth the paper it is written on. The Syrian government’s retaking of Aleppo leaves Mr Trump with almost no leverage with Moscow — even if he were inclined to use it. Mr Trump’s goal is to attack Isis and to be seen doing so. He and Mr Putin will strike a deal within the new US president’s first 100 days to launch a joint offensive against the terrorist group. Mr Trump will get his Twitter headlines. Syria will continue to burn.

Will President Trump build the Mexican border wall?

Yes — but not much of it. President-elect Trump has made such a fuss about barricading the 2,000-mile border that he needs to do something. He recently, however, turned promises of an “impenetrable, physical, tall, powerful, beautiful southern border wall” into talk of a fence. So expect some symbolic additions along the border — a third of which has some kind of barrier already.

Will Isis be destroyed as a significant global force?

No. The self-declared caliphate of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria will collapse in 2017. But once it is driven out of its urban strongholds in Mosul and, eventually, Raqqa, it will mix local insurgency with international terror assaults. The analogy is the way al-Qaeda was able to regroup in the Syrian desert after its near-death experience in Iraq in 2007-2009, storming back as Isis five years later. Isis can count on external powers to act as recruiting sergeants: Shia-backed regimes in Damascus, Baghdad and Beirut will keep Sunnis alienated. We will still be talking about Isis in 2018.

Will North Korea successfully test a nuclear-capable missile?

No. Following two nuclear bomb and more than 20 ballistic missile tests, the country has the rest of the world worried. It is a position that Pyongyang probably enjoys. But a nuclear missile test next year? A step too far. It would cross an international red line. At a time of increasing volatility in the US, Pyongyang does not know how far retaliation might extend.

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